Weekend Update #64

Mar 5

Welcome to Blue Room's Weekend Update. Each week, we're sharing what companies we're researching and the what, the who and the how that we think makes the companies interesting and unique. This roundup is brought to you weekly by a group of interns, creative minds, artists and investors who believe that through best in class investing along with the democratization of financial education we can do great things together. Enjoy, Explore and Share.

Markets experienced downward pressures this week as investors continued to digest the impact of Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. The situation continues to escalate, which has increased the systemic risk of investing in both domestic and international markets. Major indexes ended the week beginning Monday, February 28th as follows:

S&P 500 retreated 1.27%

Nasdaq declined 2.78%

DJIA fell 1.30%

The Ukraine/Russia conflict is causing disruptions and volatility in several markets including agriculture, with wheat prices up almost 41% and in energy, with Brent crude jumping 21% closing well over $100 per barrel this week. In light of domestic inflation potentially reacting aggressively to the conflict, the United States Federal Reserve continues to affirm a March rate hike of a quarter percentage.

On the geopolitical side, both the European Union and the United States were the first to react against Putin's hostility. President Joe Biden spoke to the nation in his State of the Union Address to assure the American people that the United States stands with Ukraine, among other things. Both the E.U. and the U.S. issued economic sanctions against Russian financial instruments and announced travel bans. Sanctions included:

Removal of Russia from SWIFT, a global messaging service to connect financial systems
Restriction of air travel from Russia to the EU, United States and other countries
Restrictions that bar Russian financial institutions from making any transactions in American dollars
Blocking the export of certain technologies that could enhance Russia’s military capabilities

The Russian central bank was forced to announce it would raise key interest rates from 9.5% to 20% to prevent the Ruble from sinking deeper into all time lows in relation to the dollar. The RUB/USD exchange rate has fallen nearly 40% in just one month.

Big tech companies also got involved earlier this week by disconnecting Russian state media outlets from their ad revenue, with companies like Google, YouTube, and Meta leading the move. UkraineDAO has also raised funds to donate to Ukrainian civilians by selling NFTs of the Ukrainian flag and accepting crypto donations.

Thank you Blue Room Analyst IAN CARTER

FY 2021 Earnings Expectations (via Bloomberg)

● Revenue Estimate: $62.4 million (+31.8% year-over-year, compared to $47.3 million in FY 2020)

● GAAP Net Income: $(92.8) million (-948.2% year-over-year, compared to $(8.9) million in FY 2020)

● GAAP EPS: $(1.02) (-240.7% year-over-year, compared to $(0.30) in FY 2020)

FY 2021 Earnings Expectations — BR Estimates

● Revenue Estimate: $55.2 million (+16.6% year-over-year, compared to $47.3 million in FY 2020)

● GAAP Net Income: $(104.8) million (-1083.8% year-over-year, compared to $(8.9) million in FY 2020)

● GAAP EPS: $(1.03) (-142.4% year-over-year, compared to $(0.30) in FY 2020)

FY 2021 Actual Performance

● Revenue: $58.7 million (miss; +24.1% year-over-year, compared to $47.3 million in FY 2020)

● GAAP Net Income: $(60.1) million (beat; -578.9% year-over-year, compared to $(8.9) million in FY 2020)

● GAAP EPS: $(0.65) (beat; -115.7% year-over-year, compared to $(0.30) in FY 2020) Q4 2021

Q2 2022 Earnings Expectations (via Bloomberg)

● Revenue: $51.473 billion (+15.0% YoY)

● GAAP Net Income: $1.214 billion (+27.7% YoY)

● GAAP Diluted EPS: $2.75 (+28.5% YoY)

Q2 2022 Actual Earnings

● Revenue: $51.904 billion (+15.9% YoY) ~beat expectations~

● GAAP Net Income: $1.299 billion (+36.6% YoY) ~beat expectations~

● GAAP Diluted EPS: $2.92 (+36.5% YoY) ~beat expectations~

Actual Q4 2022 Results

Subscription Revenue: $77.3 million (19% Y/Y increase vs Q4 ‘21)

Total Revenue: $90.7 million (14% Y/Y increase)

Net Loss: ($35.2) million (miss)

Diluted EPS: ($0.28) per share (miss)

Adj. Net Loss: ($1.5) million

Adjusted EPS: ($0.01) per share

Full Year F2022 Results

Subscription Revenue: $287.7 million (19% Y/Y increase)

Total Revenue: $346.7 million (14% Y/Y increase)

Net Loss: ($99.4) million

Diluted EPS: ($0.80) per share

Adj. Net Loss: ($11.3) million

Adj. EPS: ($0.09) per share

Q4 2021 Earnings Expectations (From Bloomberg):

● EPS: $(0.48) per share (compared to $(0.17) in Q4 2020)

● Revenue: $36.8 million (+12% year-over-year, compared to $33.0 million in Q4 2020)

● Net Loss: $(32.7) million (compared to $11.1 million in Q4 2020)

Q4 2021 Results:

● EPS: $(0.44) per share (compared to $(0.17) in Q4 2020)

● Revenue: $46.2 million (+40% year-over-year, compared to $33.0 million in Q4 2020)

○ Software Revenue: $38.6 million (compared to $25.0 million in Q4 2020)

○ Drug Discovery Revenue: $7.6 million (compared to $8.1 million in Q4 2020)

● Gross Profit: $26.4 million (compared to $19.0 in Q4 2020)

● Net Loss: $(30.7) million (compared to $11.1 million in Q4 2020)

● Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities: $579 million

(compared to $600 million on September 30, 2021)

● Operating Expenses: $48.9 million (compared to $124.4 million in Q4 2020)

2021 Q4 Consensus Earnings Estimates:

Revenue: $ 4.29 million

EPS: $ (0.72)

Earnings Press Release | Earnings Webcast | Form 10-K

Q4 2021 Actual Earnings:

Revenue: $ 12.5 million

EPS: $ (0.61)

Full Year 2021 Financials:

Revenue: $25.5 million

EPS: $ (2.85)

FY 2021 Earnings Expectations (via Bloomberg)

● Revenue Estimate: $1.138 billion (+139.3% year-over-year, compared to $475.6 million in FY 2020)

● GAAP Net Income: $(1.155) billion (-176.1% year-over-year, compared to $(418.3) million in FY 2020)

● GAAP EPS: $(15.82) (-117.7% year-over-year, compared to $(7.27) in FY 2020)

FY 2021 Earnings Expectations — BR Estimates

● Revenue Estimate: $1.078 billion (+126.6% year-over-year, compared to $475.6 million in FY 2020)

● GAAP Net Income: $(1.366) billion (-226.6% year-over-year, compared to $(418.3) million in FY 2020)

● GAAP EPS: $(18.38) (-152.9% year-over-year, compared to $(7.27) in FY 2020) FY 2021 Actual Performance

● Revenue: $1.146 billion (beat; +141.0% year-over-year, compared to $475.6 million in FY 2020)

● GAAP Net Income: $(1.744) billion (miss; -316.9% year-over-year, compared to $(418.3) million in FY 2020)

● GAAP EPS: $(23.44) (miss; -222.5% year-over-year, compared to $(7.27) in FY 2020)

February 16, 2022 at 11:20 AM EST

Moderator: David Risinger — SVB Leerink, Senior Managing Director

Speakers: Filip Dubovsky, MD — Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer

John Trizzino — Chief Commercial Officer and Chief Business Officer

Q4 2021 Earnings Expectations (from Bloomberg):

● EPS: $(0.86) (compared to $(2.79) in Q4 2020)

● Revenue: $449.118 million (-4% year-over-year)

● Net Income: $(138.255) million

● EBITDA: $(89.371) million (compared to $(375.5) million in Q4 2020)

Q4 2021 Results:

● EPS: $(1.28) (compared to $(2.79) in Q4 2020)

● Revenue: $473.8 million (+2% year-over-year)

○ Screening Revenue: $277.7 million (+11% year-over-year)

○ Precision Oncology Revenue: $149.0 million (+27% year-over-year)

○ COVID-19 Testing Revenue: $47.1 million (-52% year-over-year)

● Gross Margin: 70% (compared to 74% in Q4 2020)

○ Non-GAAP Gross Margin (excluding amortization of acquired intangible assets):

75% (compared to 79% in Q4 2020)

● Net Income: $(220.6) million (compared to $(436.8) million in Q4 2020)

● EBITDA: $(175.1) million (compared to $(375.5) million in Q4 2020)

○ Adjusted EBITDA: $(122.2) million (compared to $(87.9) million in Q4 2020)

● Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities: $1,030.5 billion (compared to $1.84

billion in Q4 2020)

2021 Q4 Consensus Earnings Estimates:

Revenue: $ 101.36 million

EPS: $ (0.71)

Q4 2021 Actual Earnings:

Revenue: $ 100.7 (-1.2% year-over-year)

EPS: $ (1.27)

Full Year 2021 Earnings

Revenue: $464.7 million (+14.2% year-over-year)

EPS: $ (2.88)

Q2 FY 2022 Earnings Expectations (via Bloomberg)

● Revenue: $119.3 million (-25% year-over-year vs. $158.4 million in Q2 FY 2021)

● Net Income, Adj+: $34.4 million (-43% year-over-year vs. $59.9 million in Q2 FY 2021)

● GAAP EPS: $0.52 per share (-43% year-over-year vs. $0.91 per share in Q2 FY 2021)

Q2 FY 2022 BR Estimates

● Revenue: $166.0 million (+5% year-over-year vs. $158.4 million in Q2 FY 2021)

● GAAP Net Income: $62.9 million (+5% year-over-year vs. $59.9 million in Q2 FY 2021)

● GAAP EPS: $0.95 per share (+4.4% year-over-year vs. $0.91 per share in Q2 FY 2021)

Q2 2022 Actuals

● Revenue: $168.5 million (+6.4% year-over-year vs. $158.4 million in Q2 FY 2021)

● GAAP Net Income: $68.4 million (+14% year-over-year vs. $59.9 million in Q2 FY 2021)

● GAAP EPS: $1.04 per share (+14.3% year-over-year vs. $0.91 per share in Q2 FY 2021)

Q4 2021 Earnings Expectations (from Bloomberg):

● EPS: $(1.17) (compared to $(0.94) in Q4 2020)

● Revenue: $98.645 million (+26% year-over-year, compared to $78.3 million in Q4 2020)

● Net Loss: $(118.0) million (compared to $(93.7) million in Q4 2020)

● Adjusted EBITDA: $(22.475) million (compared to $(29.8) million in Q4 2020)

Q4 2021 Results:

● EPS: $(0.89) (compared to $(0.94) in Q4 2020)

● Revenue: $108.1 million (+38% year-over-year, compared to $78.3 million in Q4 2020)

○ Precision Oncology Revenue: $88.707 million (compared to $64.7 million in Q4 2020)

○ Development Services Revenue: $19.401 million (compared to $13.6 million in Q4 2020)

● Gross Profit: $74.7 million (compared to $49.9 million in Q4 2020)

○ Gross Margin: 69% (compared to 64% in Q4 2020)

● Operating Expenses: $172.9 million (compared to $141.1 million in Q4 2020)

● Net Loss: $(72.311) million (compared to $(92.8) million in Q4 2020)

● Adjusted EBITDA: $(231.5) million (compared to $(29.8) million in Q4 2020)

● Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities: $1.6 billion

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Dyani White Hawk: Speaking to Relatives

-and-

Eamon Ore-Giron: Competing With Lightning/Rivalizando con el Relámpago

Join MCA Denver on Wednesday, February 16 to celebrate the opening of two new exhibitions: Dyani White Hawk: Speaking to Relatives and Eamon Ore-Giron: Competing With Lightning/Rivalizando con el Relámpago. The exhibitions feature new and recent works by the artists that recontextualize abstraction within a more expansive legacy of artistic creativity in the Americas. Learn more about these exhibitions here.

TICKETS